SAARF releases latest AMPS

Wrapping up 2011, the South African Advertising Research Foundation (SAARF) has released AMPS Dec 11, covering the media, product and brand consumption habits of South Africa’s adults over the past year. For most media, 2011 was not as bad as some might have anticipated, at least where maintaining audiences was concerned.

2011 was a good year for most media, despite the prevailing financial squeeze.

Overall readership results for print were reasonably positive, with both newspapers and magazines maintaining their readership bases in the face of increased media proliferation and the continued rise of digital (internet access once again grew significantly). In total, newspapers maintained their reach, as did their glossier cousins, the magazines.

Television too retained its strength. While weekly TV viewing was stable overall, most individual TV stations and satellite platforms attracted significantly more eyes in 2011.

More adults also tuned into radio, with the commercial and PBS sector growing significantly, while the community radio sector trended up.

Moving to the out-of-home sector, the revision of the frequency options and the wording of questions for this medium have driven the significant changes recorded in levels of exposure, which have declined overall.

Another decline was posted by cinema, which showed a significant decrease in attendance across 2011.

This AMPS release uses the new 2011 population updates from IHS Global Insight estimates. These updates, which see the adult 15+ population growing by 2.7%, have had a significant impact on the AMPS Dec 11 results. The industry should carefully examine these population changes, bearing them in mind when dealing with changed audience results.

 

 

 

 

The new 2011 population updates from the IHS Global Insight estimates have had a significant impact on AMPS Dec 11 results.

In total, the 15+ population has increased by 2.7%, from 34.02-million to 34.934-million, with a number of demographics changing because of this.

For many media, the new population estimates have affected audiences in thousands, even if incidence does not reflect any change.

By understanding the effects of the population update, the industry will be able to get a better understanding of what has happened to audience results.

 

BACKGROUND TO THE POPULATION CHANGE

The last population update for AMPS took place in the July 2009-June 2010 survey (AMPS Jun 10), released in September 2010. This update reflected mid-year 2010 estimates supplied by the Bureau of Market Research of UNISA (BMR). The next population update was deferred to March 2012, in order to take into account the mid-year estimates from Stats SA.

This update has now been implemented.

The current AMPS Jan-Dec 2011 survey reflects population updates for 2011, supplied in September of last year by the IHS Global Insight Regional eXplorer suite of models.

IHS Global Insight’s demographic model differs from the previously employed BMR model in a number of technical areas:

• The cohort component model handles mortality in a different way, specifically with regard to the impact of HIV/Aids. Specifically, the BMR model shows a greater impact.
• For regional distribution, slightly different techniques are employed.
• The model is checked for consistency with the economic, labour, income and development factors of every region in South Africa.

The resultant population updates are, therefore, different to the previous population estimates for a number of demographics.

 

 

(2010 figures are derived from BMR population estimates, and 2011 figures are derived from IHS Global Insight population estimates.)